| Project Objectives and Background |
There has been little scientific analysis of the impacts of climate change on Australian native forests and little evidence that forest managers are considering the potential impacts of climate change in management planning. This project will address this significant knowledge gap by providing a sound vulnerability assessment of forest species in important forest regions in Victoria. Using combined modelling and experimental approaches we will identify vulnerable species and regions, provide a rigorous experimental validation of the modelled results and identify possible adaptation strategies.
Management agencies can use this knowledge to incorporate adaptive and flexible actions into their regulatory framework to reduce species vulnerability and promote robust adaptation strategies based on understanding versus uncertainty. Ancillary to the identification of thresholds is the discovery of areas that could act as potential climatic refugia for the forest species. Many forest ecosystems in Victoria are vulnerable to predicted climate change but management options exist that can reduce this vulnerability. In particular, adaptation actions that focus on fostering the ecological resilience of all species will, in turn, maintain their regeneration niche across a wider range than would otherwise be the case.
Maintaining ecosystem resilience requires an understanding of ecosystem vulnerabilities. A modelling study by Nitschke & Hickey (2007) investigated how climate change could affect the regeneration phase in forest ecosystems in Victoria’s Central Highlands. This regeneration vulnerability assessment for 22 canopy and understorey tree species in Victoria’s Central Highland used a mechanistic model of forest regeneration. The study concluded that most forest species in this region will be highly vulnerable to climate change: by the period 2070-2100, 18 of 22 species were classified as extremely vulnerable.
Many forest tree species that currently dominate Victoria’s Central Highland are vulnerable in their regeneration niche to future climate change due to their specific regeneration requirements, relatively narrow environmental distribution and the topographic characteristics of this region.
The proposed project is a direct continuation of the previous study.
Project objectives
This project will build on the previous modelling study by Nitschke & Hickey (2007). The main aim of this study is to increase our understanding of the impact that climate change may have on the composition of forest ecosystems in Victoria.
The objectives of this study are:
- assessment of the vulnerability of important forest regions in Victoria using the TACA-Oz model (in addition to the Central Highlands)
- identification of empirical biophysical thresholds for key tree species in glasshouse experiments and field trials
- calibration of key model species with a greater degree of confidence and validation of the modelled species’ responses using field trials that simulate climate change scenarios
- assessment of possible mitigation options and testing of these options in field trials
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| DFES Staff and Students |
Dr Craig Nitschke, Research Fellow
Dr Stefan Arndt, Associate Professor
Prof Rod Keenan
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| Project Partners and Collaborators |
Department of Sustainability and Environment
CSIRO (Climate Models)
McGill University, Institutional vulnerability, Dr Gordon Hickey
Bureau of Meteorology
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| 2008/2009 Milestones and Deliverables |
The project will has a number of general and specific outcomes:
General outcomes
- An improved understanding of the impact of climate change on ecosystem resilience in forest ecosystems in Victoria
- An improved understanding of the vulnerability of long-term timber supply, water supply and forest biodiversity to climate change within forest ecosystems in Victoria;
- An improved understanding of the impact climate change will have at the landscape-level when ecosystem resilience is considered in conjunction with natural disturbances;
- The identification of climatic thresholds that will result in a loss of ecosystem resilience and changes in natural disturbance risk; and,
- Recommendations of management actions that could be used as adaptation strategies for reducing ecosystem vulnerability to climate change.
Milestones
- Submission of manuscripts from central highlands forests study (x 2)
- Preparation of project plan
- Interim report on species selection and establishment of glasshouse and field trials
- Report on Victoria wide modelling
- Final report
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| Publications |
Peer reviewed papers - submitted
Nitschke, C.R., G.M. Hickey, R.J. Keenan and S.K. Arndt. (submitted). Assessing the Vulnerability of Forest Ecosystems to Climatic Change in south east Australia. Global Ecology and Biogeography July 25, 2008.
Papers in Preparation
Nitschke, C.R., G.M. Hickey, R.J. Keenan and S.K. Arndt. In Prep. Resilience of tree species with narrow environmental coping ranges: interactions between climate change and species autecology in South-eastern Australia. Intended Journal: Austral Ecology.
Technical Reports
Nitschke, C.R. and G.M. Hickey. 2007. Assessing the vulnerability of Victoria’s Central Highland forests to climate change. State Government of Victoria, Department of Sustainability and Environment Technical Report. Peer reviewed and unpublished. (Copy of report - pdf 3.41MB)
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| Presentations/Conferences |
Conferences
- International Association for Impact Assessment Conference, Perth, WA, Australia, May 7, 2008.
- Tree species’ characteristics that influence vulnerability to climate change. Craig Nitschke and Gordon Hickey)
- Old Forests, New Management: Sir Mark Oliphant Conferences – International Frontiers of Science and Technology, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia, February 19, 2008.
- Assessing the Vulnerability of Victoria’s Central Highland Forests to Climate Change, Craig Nitschke, Gordon Hickey, Rod Keenan, Stefan Arndt)
Other Presentations
- December 20, 2007, Craig Nitschke - Assessing the Vulnerability of Victoria’s Central Highland Forests to Climate Change -
Special Presentation to The University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC, Australia (8 people)
- December 17, 2007, Craig Nitschke - Assessing the Vulnerability of Victoria’s Central Highland Forests to Climate Change -
Victorian Climate Change and Adaptation Program Interagency Seminar East Melbourne, VIC, Australia (60 people)
- November 8 2007, Craig Nitschke - Assessing the Vulnerability of Victoria’s Central Highland Forests to Climate Change - Department of Sustainability and Environment Research Seminar,
East Melbourne, VIC, Australia (40 people)
- November 2 2007, Craig Nitschke - Assessing the Vulnerability of Victoria’s Central Highland Forests to Climate Change -
University of Melbourne, Department of Forest and Ecosystem Science Research Seminar,
Creswick, VIC, Australia (30 people)(abstract)
- September 19 2007, Craig Nitschke - Assessing the Vulnerability of Victoria’s Mountain Ash Forests -
Research Seminar at Arthur Rylah Institute, Department of Sustainability and Environment,
Heidelberg, VIC, Australia (12 people)
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| Other Knowledge Transfer |
Seminar Presentations
- December 20, 2007, Craig Nitschke - Assessing the Vulnerability of Victoria’s Central Highland Forests to Climate Change -
Special Presentation to The University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC, Australia (8 people)
- December 17, 2007, Craig Nitschke - Assessing the Vulnerability of Victoria’s Central Highland Forests to Climate Change -
Victorian Climate Change and Adaptation Program Interagency Seminar East Melbourne, VIC, Australia (60 people)
- November 8 2007, Craig Nitschke - Assessing the Vulnerability of Victoria’s Central Highland Forests to Climate Change - Department of Sustainability and Environment Research Seminar,
East Melbourne, VIC, Australia (40 people)
- November 2 2007, Craig Nitschke - Assessing the Vulnerability of Victoria’s Central Highland Forests to Climate Change -
University of Melbourne, Department of Forest and Ecosystem Science Research Seminar,
Creswick, VIC, Australia (30 people)(abstract)
- September 19 2007, Craig Nitschke - Assessing the Vulnerability of Victoria’s Mountain Ash Forests -
Research Seminar at Arthur Rylah Institute, Department of Sustainability and Environment,
Heidelberg, VIC, Australia (12 people)
Media Interviews/ Communication
- Australian Broadcasting Corporation National Radio. 2008. Radio Show: “Bush Telegraph”. “How will climate change impact our old forests”; Thursday, February, 21st, 2008. Host: Michael McKenzie.
- Radio Adelaide; “Radio News Interview”, Wednesday, February, 20th, 2008.
- Australian Broadcasting Corporation National Radio. 2008. “Country Hour”: Radio Interview; Wednesday, February, 20th, 2008.
- The Age. 2008. Tuesday, February 19th, 2008. Melbourne, Vic, Australia. Reporter: Chee Chee Leung.
- Science Alert: Australia & New Zealand. 2008. Forest Vulnerable to Climate Change. Tuesday, February 19th, 2008. Reporter: CRC for Forestry.
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| Contact |
Professor Rod Keenan
Department of Forest & Ecosystem Science
Melbourne School of Land and Environment
University of Melbourne
Water St Creswick VIC 3363
Phone: +61 (0) 3 5321 4110
Fax: +61 (0) 3 5321 4135
E-mail: rkeenan@unimelb.edu.au |
DSE Research Project 1.9