Melbourne School of Land and Environment Department of Forest and Ecosystem Science

I completed my B.Sc.F. (Hons) in forest resources management in 2000 and my Ph.D. in forest vulnerability and sustainable forest management under climate change in 2006 from the University of British Columbia. After completing my Ph.D. in 2006 I work on a 6 month postdoc investigating the cumulative impacts of resource development on biodiversity in northeast British Columbia, Canada.  I then worked on a 6 month postdoc at the University of Melbourne where I developed a theoretical model to assess the vulnerability of Victorian tree species to climate change.  Following this postdoc I returned to British Columbia, Canada where I have been involved in several research projects that relate to assessing the vulnerability of tree species and ecosystems to climate change and investigating alternative strategies for managing forests under climate change.  From 2007 to current I have worked as an adjunct research with a non-government research organisation (Bulkley Valley Research Centre) in British Columbia conducting climate change vulnerability research on sub-boreal ecosystems and from 2008 I have worked as a Research Associate with the University of British Columbia on a project investigating the ecology and role of disturbance in increasing the sensitivity of forest ecosystems in the southwest Yukon, Canada to recent and predicted climate change.

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The major focuses of my research relate to the concepts of forest ecology, sustainable forest management and assessing ecosystem vulnerability to climate change through field studies and ecological modelling. My research objectives are:

• To quantify the mechanisms that may make species vulnerable to predicted climate change through field studies and controlled experiments 
• To understand the adaptive capacity of species to climate change by investigating the role of climate, disturbance, management, competition, species ecophysiology, genetic variation and their interactions through field studies and controlled experiments 
• To investigate species sensitivity to climate through species field trials established across climatic gradients.
• To develop robust and empirically based mechanistic models that can be used to assess species vulnerability to climate change and are continually validated and refined through field trials 
• To develop or parameterise stand and landscape-level models for investigating the role of management, disturbance and competition on increasing the sensitivity of forest ecosystems to climate change
• To assess alternative strategies for managing Victoria’s forests under climate change in order to identify and quantify actions that are likely to adapt forests in order to maintain social, cultural, ecological, and economical values

Research groups

• Forests and Climate Change Research Group

Program 1: Forest Vulnerability to Climate Change

• Process understanding of plant adaptations to environmental stresses in forests
• Modelling of climate change impacts on forest vulnerability

The impact of climate change on forest ecosystems is studied using measurements and modelling. The measurements and modelling focus on a process understanding of the mechanisms that enable tree species to adapt to climate change and the processes that increase their sensitivity to climate change.  Field sites in Australia and Canada are used to investigate adaptive mechanisms of tree species and ecological processes (disturbance) that may hinder adaptation.  These sites along with controlled experiments are also being used for developing ecological models to assess species vulnerability to predicted climate change

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Research Projects

Victoria, Australia

DSE Research Project 1.9 - Vulnerability of Victorian forest ecosystems to climate change
2008 to 2011; $150,000; Department of Sustainability and Environment
Nitschke, Arndt, Keenan

Summary:
Maintaining ecosystem resilience requires an understanding of potential vulnerability of different ecosystems to long-term climate change.  Nitschke & Hickey (2007) investigated how climate change could affect the regeneration phase in tree species  in Victoria’s Central Highlands. This assessment concluded that most forest species in this region will be highly vulnerable to climate changethe 2080s, 18 of 22 species were classified as extremely vulnerable due to their specific regeneration requirements, relatively narrow environmental distribution and the topographic characteristics of this region.  There has been relatively little scientific analysis of the impacts of climate change on Australian native forests and little evidence that forest managers are incorporating the potential impacts of climate change in management planning. This project will address this significant knowledge gap by providing a sound assessment of the vulnerability of forest species in important forest regions in Victoria. Using combined modelling and experimental approaches we will identify vulnerable species and regions, provide a rigorous experimental validation of modelled results and identify possible adaptation strategies.

Yukon, Canada

Role of disturbance in increasing the sensitivity of northern ecosystems to climate change
2008-2010; $197,420; Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC) Strategic Project Grant
Innes, Nitschke

Summary
This project seeks to determine the impacts that the recent beetle outbreak and wildfires are having on the ability of forest ecosystems to recover under warmer and drier climate conditions and to determine the vulnerability of these forest ecosystems to future predicted climatic change.  The study provides the opportunity to engage in model calibration and validation along with the ability to investigate the cascading relationship between ecosystem sensitivity, natural disturbance and forest management.  The integration of climate change vulnerability through the investigation of ecosystem sensitivity will provide the foundation for developing adaptation and mitigation strategies.  The overriding objective is to determine the degree of vulnerability of forest ecosystems in the region to recent and future climatic change in order to develop adaptation strategies based on understanding and knowledge.  

British Columbia, Canada

Assessing the impacts of climate change on the regeneration of British Columbia’s temperate and boreal ecosystems
2009-2010; $20,000; Government of British Columbia Ministry of Forests and Range, Research Branch
Nitschke, Campbell

Regeneration vulnerability assessment for dominant tree species throughout the central interior of British Columbia
2008-2010; $80,000; Government of British Columbia Future Forest Ecosystem Initiative
Nitschke, Woods

Assessing ecosystem vulnerability to climate change from the tree- to stand- to landscape-level
2007- 2010; $239,760; Government of British Columbia Forest Sciences Program
Nitschke, Astrup

Summaries
Climate change directly or indirectly threatens the integrity of ecosystems.  Functional and healthy ecosystems provide the necessary foundation for sustainable forest management.  These projects seeks to investigate the vulnerability of ecosystems in British Columbia to climate change through modelling.  In the first two projects tree species sensitivity to climate change is being modelled using the TACA model while in the latter project ecosystem response is being modelled and using the TACA and SORTIE-ND model to investigate the impacts climate change will have on stand dynamics and disturbance. 

Assessing alternative forest management strategies under climate change
2008-2010; $120,960; Government of British Columbia Forest Sciences Program
Nelson, Mathey, Nitschke

Summary
This research is seeking to identify potential opportunities and bottlenecks when planning for climate change. A meta-modelling approach is being developed and applied to a case study in order to provide tangible insight into the potential impacts on climate change at the landscape-level which in turn are providing a basis for an economic and social assessment of alternative forest management strategies. This research is also examining how these can be incorporated into existing management plans and policy processes.

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Peer Reviewed Journal Articles

Nitschke, C.R., and J.L. Innes. 2008. Integrating climate change into forest management in South-Central British Columbia: an assessment of landscape vulnerability and development of a climate-smart framework. Forest Ecology and Management 256 (3): 313-327.

Nitschke, C.R. 2008. The cumulative effects of resource development on biodiversity and ecological integrity in the Peace-Moberly region of Northeast British Columbia, Canada. Biodiversity and Conservation 17 (7): 1715-1740.

Nitschke, C.R. and J.L. Innes. 2008. Climatic change and fire potential in South-Central British Columbia, Canada. Global Change Biology 14 (4): 841–855.

Nitschke, C.R., and J.L. Innes. 2008. A Tree and Climate Assessment Tool for Modelling Ecosystem Response to Climate Change.  Ecological Modelling 210 (3): 263–277.

Hickey, G.M., and C.R. Nitschke. 2007. Monitoring sustainable forest management in the Pacific Rim. Journal of Sustainable Forestry 24 (2/3): 245–278.

Nitschke, C.R., and J.L. Innes. 2006. Interactions between fire, climate change and forest biodiversity. Perspectives in Agriculture, Veterinary Science, Nutrition and Natural Resources 1(60): 1–9.

Nitschke, C.R., 2005. Triad zoning and management on a dynamic landscape: conserving biodiversity and timber supply through holistic analysis and risk spreading.  The International Forestry Review 7 (5): 361 (ABSTRACT)

Hickey, G.M., and C.R. Nitschke. 2005. Monitoring sustainable forest management in the Pacific Rim. The International Forestry Review 7 (5): 233

Nitschke, C.R., 2005. Does forest harvesting emulate wildfire? A comparison of effects on selected attributes in coniferous-dominated headwater systems. Forest Ecology and Management 214: 305–319.

Hickey, G.M., and C.R. Nitschke. 2005. Crossing disciplinary boundaries in forest research: An international challenge. Forestry Chronicle 81 (3): 321–323

Nitschke, C.R., Hickey, G.M., Mathey, A.H., and Allen, S.D. 2005. Guest Editorial. Forestry Chronicle Special IUFRO World Congress Issue: Crossing Borders: International Perspectives on Interdisciplinary Research. Forestry Chronicle 81 (3): 295–296.

Peer Reviewed Book Chapters

Hickey, Gordon M., and Craig R. Nitschke. 2007. Monitoring Sustainable Forest Management in the Pacific Rim Region. Pp. 245–278, In:  R. L. Deal, R. White, and G. L. Benson (eds.); Sustainable Forestry Management and Wood Production in a Global Economy. Haworth Food & Agricultural Products Press, USA.

Nitschke, C.R., G.M. Hickey and J.L. Innes. 2007. Effectiveness Monitoring of Biodiversity in Dynamic Environments: Is it possible? Pp 33–45, In: J.L. Innes and J.A. Timko (Eds); Proceedings of the Monitoring the Effectiveness of Biological Conservation Conference, 2-4 November, 2004, Richmond B.C. Available at: http://www.forrex.org/events/mebc/papers.html

Nitschke, C.R., and J.L. Innes. 2005. The Application of Forest Zoning as an Alternative to Multiple Use Forestry. Pp 97–124, In: Innes, J.L., Hickey, G.M. and Hoen, H.F. (Eds.); Forestry and Environmental Change: Socioeconomic and Political Dimensions. CAB International, Oxford.

Thesis and Technical Reports

Nitschke, C.R. 2009. Vulnerability and Adaptive Capacity of Yukon Tree Species to Climate Change. Technical Report RC08-1698 completed for Yukon Territorial Government.

Nitschke, C.R. and R. Astrup. 2008. The vulnerability of the dominant tree species in the Sub-Boreal Spruce Ecosystem of Northwest British Columbia to predicted climate change. Government of British Columbia Forest Sciences Program Technical Report Y081200.

Waeber P. and C.R. Nitschke. 2008. Understanding the influence of climate on the life history of Dothistroma needle blight: climate change and potential outbreak risk. Bulkley Valley Centre for Natural Resources Research and Management Extension Note #7.

Nitschke, C.R. and G.M. Hickey. 2007. Assessing the vulnerability of Victoria’s Central Highland forests to climate change. University of Melbourne Technical Report 1/2007. Prepared for the Department of Sustainability and Environment, December 2007; Peer reviewed.

Nitschke, C.R. 2007. The vulnerability of grassland ecosystems and species over the next 100 years of climate change. Magazine of the Grasslands Conservation Council of British Columbia. BC Grasslands, Spring: 17–20.

Nitschke, C.R. and J.L. Innes. 2007. Impact of climate change on landscape-level fire severity ratings in the North Okanagan, British Columbia, Canada. Pp 144–145, In: L. Joyce, R. Haynes, R. White, and J. Barbour (tech. coords); Bringing climate change into natural resources management: proceedings. General Technical Report PNW-GTR-706. Portland, OR: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station. 150 p.

Nitschke, C.R. 2006. Integrating Climate Change into Forest Planning: A Spatial and Temporal Analysis of Landscape Vulnerability. PhD dissertation, The University of British Columbia. Vancouver, Canada. 532 pp.

Nitschke, C.R. 2006. Considering climate change in sustainable forest management. Sustainable Forest Management Network Research Note Series No. 19: 1–4.

Nitschke, C.R. 2004. Decision system for implementing sustainable forest management under climate change. Pp. 66, In: APGC 2004 Organising Committees (Eds), The 6th International Symposium on Plant Responses to Air Pollution and Global Changes: Program and Abstracts. Yatabe Printing Co., Ltd., Tsukuba, Japan. 334 pp.

Innes, J., Guang-Yu, W., Allen, S.D., Nitschke, C. and Hickey, G. 2004. Certification, Indicators and the Forest and Range Practices Act (FRPA) Resource Evaluation Program. John Innes and Associates, West Vancouver, Canada. 316 p.

Nitschke, C.R. 2002. Evaluation of a Local Area Agreement for Fish Stream Assessment. B.Sc.F Graduating Essay. Call Number: BSF 2002-NIT. 61 pp.

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Potential Honours or PhD/ MSc Projects in Forest Vulnerability and Climate Change

Potential PhD / MSc Projects

• Adaptive capacity of tree species to climate variability and change – ecophysiology
• Adaptive capacity of tree species to climate variability and change – regeneration
• Adaptive capacity of tree species to variability and change – growth and productivity
• The role of biotic (competition, disease, etc) interactions in species sensitivity to environmental change
• The role of abiotic (frost, drought, heat, etc) interactions in species sensitivity to environmental change
• Determining the role of hardening in increasing the sensitivity of seedlings to climate change
• Assessing temporal and spatial changes in vulnerability of species and ecosystems to disturbance agents under climate change – fire, insects, disease
• Modelling forest ecosystem vulnerability from the tree to stand to landscape-level – model development, model parameterisation, assessment
• Quantifying adaptation options in forests to climate change – biodiversity, carbon, water, timber
• Institutional barriers to adaptation of forest management to climate change in Victoria

Potential MSc/ Honours Projects

• Determining the role of frost, cold temperatures, and primary dormancy in increasing the sensitivity of species to climate change
• Determining the role of secondary dormancy in increasing the sensitivity of species to climate change

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Master of Forest Ecosystem Science

Subject: Forest Carbon and Climate Change (2009)
Lectures on Forest Ecosystem Modelling; Climate Change Modelling; Climate Change Impacts on Forests; Vulnerability Assessments

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